Report overview
The Machine-to-Machine Market:
A high-growth opportunity for MNOs
The machine-to-machine (M2M) market is dynamic, serving
diverse vertical industries with a range of different devices across multiple
networks. Growth is driven by a number of different factors including new
regulations, a variety of business models, innovations, falling hardware costs
and technological developments. Cellular networks are well-suited to offer the
connectivity for a range of different M2M applications, and operators are
increasing their focus on the M2M space, particularly in mature, saturated
markets.
The diversity of the market makes it challenging to address,
particularly for mobile operators geared to generating revenue from high
volumes of subscriptions with relatively high usage requirements and a limited
range of devices. Furthermore there are a number of focused M2M service
providers, many with vertical market specialization, that are already
addressing the market, some of which may also be existing partners, such as
MVNOs and other airtime resellers.
Key findings
- The potential size of the cellular M2M market is
enormous, providing operators with a sizable, long-term growth opportunity. We
forecast that the volume of cellular M2M
subscriptions will increase almost fourfold between 2010 and 2016, from 72m to
282m (CAGR 26%). This is equivalent to 1.4%
of all mobile subscriptions in 2010, increasing to 3.6% in 2016. In other
words, almost 9% of net additions
between 2010 and 2016 will be M2M subscriptions.
- There are significant differences in adoption
regionally, with mature, developed markets leading the way and many emerging
markets still at a very nascent stage. An
important factor here is simply the level of income, which in turn dictates the
adoption of machines in general, such as vehicles, consumer electronics and utility
meters. This will continue to be an important factor, but emerging markets
will also be driven by regulatory factors and an increasing focus by operators
as their traditional business matures.
o
North America is the largest market in terms of volume, accounting for a third of all M2M
subscriptions in 2010. The percentage of mobile subscriptions that are M2M
is by far the highest in North America, and will remain so through 2016 and
beyond. Growth is picking up in relatively new applications such as consumer
electronics and telematics, while more traditional markets such as fleet management also continue to
develop.
o
Europe is the second largest market, accounting for just under a third of global M2M
subscriptions in 2010. Smart metering is
an important application segment, with regulations in many countries already
mandated.
o
Asia-Pacific is forecast
to become the largest market in 2013, and by 2016 we expect it will account for 37% of subscriptions. China
is the key market in the region, where the government is driving the adoption
of smart meters in order to better manage the growth in demand for energy.
However, adoption in most other large, emerging countries in the region is more
limited, with operators focused on cost reduction, capacity management and
subscription acquisition.
o
Adoption in Africa & the Middle East (AME) remains
overall low. In 2010, just 0.5% of
mobile subscriptions were M2M. Fleet management is still the key
application in AME, but there are also opportunities given limited fixed network
coverage, creating demand for POS terminals, smart meters and remote
monitoring.
o
Latin America is the smallest region but also is
expected to be the fastest growing.
The focus on M2M for most operators has been very limited to date, but new regulations in the important Brazilian
market requiring new cars to be equipped with anti-theft capabilities,
which have taken some time to finalize, have now been realized and will be the
key market driver in the region.
- Government
regulations and targets are key market drivers across different regions and
applications. Smart metering is an
important element of environmental policies to reduce the consumption of
utility services and peak demand rates in many parts of the world. Car
safety and anti-theft are driving regulations in telematics, in Europe and
Latin America respectively. Traffic
monitoring, particularly of heavy goods and commercial vehicles, is also
likely to spread to other countries, and has already been implemented in parts
of central Europe.
- Utilities,
smart metering in particular, will remain the largest application in terms of
volume. In 2010 28% of all cellular
M2M subscriptions were in the utility sector, the vast majority of which
are used for smart metering. Regulations will be the key driver, although there
are a range of different technologies and network architectures. Furthermore,
the volume of data sent by smart meters is low, resulting in low ARPS.
Telematics is expected to be the fastest growing application segment and, with
higher ARPS levels, will become the largest revenue opportunity in 2016.
- Demand
for high bandwidth applications is limited, and for the vast majority of
M2M subscriptions, a 2G connection suffices. Although higher bandwidth
applications are growing, and LTE is also creating additional opportunities,
adoption of 3G and 4G modules will be slow relative to usage for handset and PC
access subscriptions. Mobile network operators must plan for the fact that many
M2M subscriptions last for many years, which impacts 2G network discontinuation
strategies.
- The M2M
value chain is complex, including a broad range of different players. It can broadly be broken down into three:
devices, connectivity and applications (other term is DNA: Devices,
Network, Application). However, different
applications typically require different business models and, as a result,
different interactions between elements of the value chain. These three
different elements must also be further broken down to fully understand the
nature of the opportunity.
- Mobile
network operators have historically taken a passive approach to the M2M market,
given its complexities and small size. This has changed in developed markets
where the opportunity has become more attractive, and traditional markets have
become saturated. By becoming more active in the value chain, operators can
both take a larger revenue share of it, as well as facilitate its growth.
- M2M
subscriptions have different requirements compared with handset and mobile
broadband subscriptions, and as such need appropriate support systems.
Operators have to partner or invest to be able to address these requirements,
which also provide the opportunity for selling value-added services.
- Operators with the best coverage, excellent
international roaming agreements, strong platform partnerships and an established position in the business
market are best placed to gain from the M2M opportunity. With these
attributes, they can drive M2M subscription volume, in turn driving
profitability. Some large operators in developed markets are further addressing
the opportunity through investments to
facilitate application development, module certification & testing as well
as provide access to next- generation technologies. Less well-positioned
operators must focus on having strong MVNO partnerships and/or focus on a
competitive edge within certain vertical and/or local markets.
